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The Heart Failure Society of America’s 2026 report estimates that 7.7 million U.S. adults currently have heart failure, with the number projected to reach 11.4 million by 2050. It also reports rising age-adjusted mortality and low use of recommended therapies, while highlighting worsening trends among younger adults.
The Heart Failure Society of America’s 2026 annual report projects that the number of U.S. adults living with heart failure will rise from an estimated 7.7 million now to 11.4 million by 2050, while age-adjusted mortality has already climbed. The report describes worsening disease trends and low use of recommended treatment as an urgent public health challenge.
The HF STATS report estimates that heart failure affects about 3% of U.S. adults. It projects prevalence will reach 3.2% (8.7 million) by 2030, 3.6% (10.3 million) by 2040 and 3.8% (11.4 million) by 2050. The authors attribute the expected increase in part to an aging population and rising rates of obesity, hypertension and other cardiometabolic risk factors. The report also says roughly one in four Americans is now expected to develop heart failure during their lifetime.
Mortality has worsened: age-adjusted heart failure death rates rose about 37% from 2010 to 2023, reversing more than a decade of earlier progress, according to the report’s authors. Among adults ages 25-44, the unadjusted rate more than doubled from 0.6 to 1.4 deaths per 100,000 between 2001 and 2020. For those ages 45-64, it rose from 6.4 to 12.5 per 100,000 over the same period.
The report also identifies a gap between clinical evidence and routine care. Real-world data cited by the authors show that only 18% of more than 3 million patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction were receiving all four recommended medication classes: beta-blockers, renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists and SGLT2 inhibitors. The report calls for better initiation, dose adjustment and long-term continuation of these treatments.
Rising Deaths Meet a Treatment Gap
The figures point to pressure on patients, health systems and public health programs as the population at risk grows. A rising burden alongside underuse of recommended medication means that improving access to established care is a central concern, not only the development of new treatments. The report’s authors argue that prevention, earlier recognition and consistent treatment could help change the trend, though the report does not quantify how much any one intervention would reduce future cases or deaths.
The data also challenge the assumption that heart failure is mainly a concern for older adults. Hospitalization rates are declining among people 65 and older, according to the report, but are rising among younger adults. That shift matters for screening and risk-factor management, as well as for people who may face a long period of illness and treatment.
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How the Report Tracks the Shift
The HF STATS report is the Heart Failure Society of America’s annual accounting of the condition’s burden and care in the United States. Its estimates bring together prevalence projections and mortality trends covering different time periods; the prevalence forecasts extend to 2050, while the cited age-specific mortality comparison covers 2001-2020 and the age-adjusted national trend covers 2010-2023.
The report’s authors, chaired by Eiran Gorodeski of University Hospitals Harrington Heart & Vascular Institute and Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, describe a combination of rising mortality, younger age at onset, a growing at-risk population and gaps in practice. Accompanying editorials by clinicians from Yale and Kaiser Permanente San Francisco discuss how care delivery and earlier risk assessment might respond. These recommendations are expert proposals, not evidence that a specific program has already changed national outcomes.
“HF STATS 2026 reports a condition at a critical inflection point: rising mortality, younger age at onset, an expanding at-risk population, and widening gaps between evidence and practice.”
— HF STATS 2026 authors, chaired by Eiran Gorodeski
Limits of the Available Data
The report’s projections are estimates, not a guarantee of how many people will develop heart failure. The supplied findings attribute expected growth partly to demographic and risk-factor trends but do not specify how much each factor contributes or how future changes in prevention and care might alter the projections. Mortality measures also cover different age groups and time periods, so they should not be treated as a single continuous comparison.
The report identifies low use of the four medication classes among patients with reduced ejection fraction, but the supplied material does not break down that 18% figure by region, race, health system or reason for non-use. It also highlights racial and geographic disparities and a shrinking pipeline of advanced subspecialists without giving detailed measurements here. The extent and causes of those gaps remain unclear from the reported figures.
Turning Evidence Into Routine Care
The report authors and accompanying editorialists call for stronger prevention, earlier recognition and improved delivery of recommended medication. Suggested measures include electronic health record decision support, multidisciplinary treatment programs and simpler medication regimens. For younger adults, the report’s authors and editorialists point to early screening and control of risk factors; one editorial also suggests greater use of risk scores and natriuretic peptide testing for people with stage B heart failure.
The material provided does not specify a national implementation plan, timetable or next formal milestone. Progress will depend on decisions by clinicians, health systems, payers, policymakers and communities, the report’s authors say. Future reporting and data will be needed to show whether these steps increase treatment use and change heart failure rates, hospitalizations or deaths.
Key Questions
How many U.S. adults are estimated to have heart failure?
The report estimates 7.7 million adults, or about 3% of the U.S. adult population, currently have heart failure.
How many cases does the report project by 2050?
The HF STATS report projects 11.4 million U.S. adults, or 3.8% of adults, will have heart failure by 2050. This is a projection, not a confirmed future count.
What does the report say about mortality?
It reports that age-adjusted heart failure mortality rates rose by about 37% from 2010 to 2023. Separately, unadjusted rates more than doubled among adults ages 25-44 and nearly doubled among those ages 45-64 from 2001 to 2020.
Why does the report focus on treatment use?
Real-world data cited in the report show that 18% of more than 3 million patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction were receiving all four recommended medication classes. Editorialists call for systems that help clinicians start and maintain those therapies.
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